How a caller is scored
Each call is graded on one question — did the coin reach
2× its
price at the moment of the call?
- Hit (reached 2×) →
+100%. Miss (never doubled) → −80%, the assumed stop. No partial credit; a coin that peaks at 1.9× counts the same as one that goes to zero.
- EV / call is the expected return of following every call:
1.8 × (2× hit-rate) − 0.8. A 44.4% hit-rate breaks even; above it, positive edge.
- Hit-rates are recency-weighted (14-day half-life, so current form dominates) and shrunk toward the crowd for callers with few calls, so a handful of lucky hits can't top the board.
- Swing counts a 2× reached within 24h; Fast only within 1h (needs quick execution).